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Universidad Catolica vs Bolívar — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bolívar
Bolívar
I. Díaz 35'
S. Zamora 10'
3/1/2022CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Universidad Catolica60%
×Draw26%
Bolívar15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad Catolica
1.52
Bolívar
0.60

Universidad Catolica creates 153% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 22 away

creates per match

Universidad Catolica
1.00
Bolívar
1.00

allows per match

Universidad Catolica
0.20
Bolívar
2.05

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw
85%
Universidad Catolica or Bolívar
74%
Draw or Bolívar
40%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
32%
Bolívar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
78%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
45%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
20%
Bolívar 1+ goals
45%
Bolívar 2+ goals
12%
Bolívar 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
80%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Bolívar away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.00 + Bolívar defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bolívar attack 1.00 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more
60%
level
26%
Bolívar scores more
15%

Universidad Catolica at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
F. MartínezUniversidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica · M
7.6

Match Events

10'
S. Zamora↳ J. Carabalí
15'
Bruno Sávio
35'
I. Díaz↳ F. Martínez
45+1'
José Sagredo
61'
Cristian Martínez
62'
C. Melgar← P. Rodríguez
68'
W. Cevallos← S. Zamora
73'
J. Herrera← Alberto Guitián
73'
M. Villarroel← L. Justiniano
76'
Kevin Minda
76'
Francisco Da Costa
78'
T. Minda← C. Martínez
78'
R. Rivas← I. Díaz
83'
G. Villamíl← D. Bejarano
83'
L. Chávez← Álex Granell
85'
L. Loor← W. Chalá
85'
D. Clavijo← F. Martínez

Possession

43%Universidad

Shots

10Universidad

Pass accuracy

48%Universidad

Statistics

UniversidadBolívar
Overview
43%Possession57%
10Total Shots11
4Corners8
9Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots11
5On Target2
3Off Target6
2Blocked3
5Inside Box4
5Outside Box7
Passing
43%Possession57%
330Total Passes438
252Accurate Passes353
76%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
7Offsides1

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs Bolívar

Universidad Catolica beat Bolívar 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 1, 2022.

Goals: S. Zamora (10'), I. Díaz (35').

Bolívar controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.