Bolívar 1–1 Universidad Catolica: Result & Stats

Bolívar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Universidad Catolica

Chico 8'

I. Díaz 11'

2/22/2022

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bolívar54%

×Draw23%

Universidad Catolica23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolívarExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.13

Bolívar

1.83

Universidad Catolica

1.13

Bolívar creates 62% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 6 away

2.17

creates per match

1.17

1.09

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Bolívar

2.17

Universidad Catolica

1.17

allows per match

Bolívar

1.09

Universidad Catolica

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw

77%

Bolívar or Universidad Catolica

77%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

46%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+

30%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals

84%

Bolívar 2+ goals

54%

Bolívar 3+ goals

28%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

68%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

31%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)

70%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 2.17 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Universidad Catolica attack 1.17 + Bolívar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bolívar scores more

54%

level

23%

Universidad Catolica scores more

23%

Bolívar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Chico

Bolívar · F

7.9

Match Events

8'

11'

11'

34'

37'

W. Cevallos← S. Zamora

41'

Gregori Anangonó

45'

W. Chalá← L. Alzugaray

60'

Bruno Sávio

72'

T. Minda← I. Díaz

72'

D. Clavijo← F. Martínez

72'

R. Rivas← C. Martínez

75'

R. Lima← Álex Granell

75'

B. Miranda← Bruno Sávio

82'

C. Melgar← B. Miranda

88'

M. Villarroel← L. Justiniano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BolívarUniversidad

Overview

65%Possession35%

23Total Shots11

6Corners5

6Fouls12

Shots

23Total Shots11

5On Target4

15Off Target7

3Blocked0

11Inside Box6

12Outside Box5

Passing

65%Possession35%

466Total Passes257

368Accurate Passes161

79%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides5