Universidad Catolica 1–0 America de Quito

Universidad Catolica

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

America de Quito

5/24/2019

Liga Pro · Round 15Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Universidad Catolica62%

×Draw23%

America de Quito15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.72

Universidad Catolica

1.76

America de Quito

0.72

Universidad Catolica creates 144% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 15 away

1.92

creates per match

0.40

1.03

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

1.92

America de Quito

0.40

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

1.03

America de Quito

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

America de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

America de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

85%

Universidad Catolica or America de Quito

77%

Draw or America de Quito

38%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

36%

America de Quito wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

83%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

52%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

26%

America de Quito 1+ goals

51%

America de Quito 2+ goals

16%

America de Quito 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

81%

America de Quito (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

America de Quito away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.92 + America de Quito defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.76

America de Quito attack 0.40 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

62%

level

23%

America de Quito scores more

15%

Universidad Catolica at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff