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America de Quito vs Universidad Catolica — Liga Pro 2018

America de Quito
America de Quito
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
11/2/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 30Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

America de Quito39%
×Draw27%
Universidad Catolica34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Quito
1.29
Universidad Catolica
1.17

America de Quito creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 131 away

creates per match

America de Quito
1.33
Universidad Catolica
1.41

allows per match

America de Quito
0.93
Universidad Catolica
1.25

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw
66%
America de Quito or Universidad Catolica
73%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
61%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+
18%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals
72%
America de Quito 2+ goals
37%
America de Quito 3+ goals
14%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
69%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
33%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)
54%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.25 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.33 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Universidad Catolica attack 1.41 + America de Quito defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

America de Quito scores more
39%
level
27%
Universidad Catolica scores more
34%

America de Quito at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: America de Quito 1–0 Universidad Catolica

America de Quito beat Universidad Catolica 1-0 in Liga Pro on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito).