Universidad Catolica 3–0 9 de Octubre

Universidad Catolica

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

9 de Octubre

J. Valencia 48'

K. Minda 38'

J. Tévez 2'

11/29/2021

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 15Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Universidad Catolica55%

×Draw23%

9 de Octubre22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this match9 de Octubre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.09

Universidad Catolica

1.86

9 de Octubre

1.09

Universidad Catolica creates 71% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 30 away

1.90

creates per match

1.17

1.02

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

1.90

9 de Octubre

1.17

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

1.02

9 de Octubre

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

9 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

9 de Octubre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

78%

Universidad Catolica or 9 de Octubre

77%

Draw or 9 de Octubre

45%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

32%

9 de Octubre wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

84%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

55%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

28%

9 de Octubre 1+ goals

66%

9 de Octubre 2+ goals

30%

9 de Octubre 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

71%

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.02 · 133 matches

9 de Octubre away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.90 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.86

9 de Octubre attack 1.17 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

55%

level

23%

9 de Octubre scores more

22%

Universidad Catolica at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

22'

29'

31'

38'

K. Minda↳ Y. Mosquera

46'

J. Valencia← J. Vivar

46'

J. Paredes← R. Jaramillo

48'

J. Valencia↳ J. Carabalí

54'

J. Medina← T. Valencia

59'

E. Farías← J. Tévez

69'

É. Cetré← D. Cabezas

69'

G. Mina← D. Luna

77'

D. Armas← W. Cevallos

82'

W. Caicedo← J. Fajardo

86'

J. Mina← J. Carabalí

87'

I. Mosquera← Y. Mosquera

89'

Marcos Andrés López

89'

Facundo Martinez

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Universidad9

Overview

48%Possession52%

10Total Shots9

9Corners4

16Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots9

8On Target3

2Off Target6

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

4Offsides3