9 de Octubre 1–0 Universidad Catolica

9 de Octubre

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad Catolica

M. Lucas 78'

7/20/2021

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 15Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer Herrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

9 de Octubre37%

×Draw27%

Universidad Catolica36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

9 de OctubreExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.27

9 de Octubre

1.28

Universidad Catolica

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 133 away

1.30

creates per match

1.42

1.13

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

9 de Octubre

1.30

Universidad Catolica

1.42

allows per match

9 de Octubre

1.13

Universidad Catolica

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

9 de Octubre+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

9 de Octubre ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

9 de Octubre or draw

64%

9 de Octubre or Universidad Catolica

73%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

63%

Winning margin

9 de Octubre wins by 2+

16%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

9 de Octubre 1+ goals

72%

9 de Octubre 2+ goals

37%

9 de Octubre 3+ goals

14%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

72%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

36%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)

50%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

9 de Octubre at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.26 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

9 de Octubre attack 1.30 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.28

Universidad Catolica attack 1.42 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

9 de Octubre scores more

37%

level

27%

Universidad Catolica scores more

36%

9 de Octubre at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "9 de Octubre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Joao Paredes

27'

Facundo Martinez

45+2'

Manuel Erasmo Lucas

46'

J. Carabalí← J. Valencia

49'

68'

68'

68'

75'

J. Vivar← F. Martínez

75'

D. Armas← L. Alzugaray

77'

W. Caicedo← J. Cazares

77'

J. Cortéz← F. Mejía

78'

M. Lucas↳ D. Luna

87'

É. Cetré← J. Paredes

87'

W. Cevallos← W. Chalá

Possession

Shots

Statistics

9Universidad

Overview

59%Possession41%

8Total Shots2

6Corners4

23Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots2

3On Target1

5Off Target1

Passing

59%Possession41%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

23Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides6