Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

United vs Dakota — Division di Honor 2019

United
United
FT
0 – 7
Dakota
Dakota
3/7/2020Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 11Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

United4%
×Draw7%
Dakota89%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

United
0.90
Dakota
4.31

Dakota creates 379% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 62 away

creates per match

United
0.83
Dakota
3.29

allows per match

United
5.33
Dakota
0.97

finishing

United+0.00on par
Dakota+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United ↓

Dakota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–39%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

United or draw
11%
United or Dakota
93%
Draw or Dakota
96%

Winning margin

United wins by 2+
1%
Dakota wins by 2+
77%

Team goals

United 1+ goals
59%
United 2+ goals
23%
United 3+ goals
6%
Dakota 1+ goals
98%
Dakota 2+ goals
92%
Dakota 3+ goals
77%

Draw no bet

United (draw refunded)
4%
Dakota (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United at home — creates 0.83, concedes 5.33 · 6 matches

Dakota away — creates 3.29, concedes 0.97 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United attack 0.83 + Dakota defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.90

Dakota attack 3.29 + United defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 4.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

United scores more
4%
level
7%
Dakota scores more
89%

Dakota at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Dakota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: United vs Dakota

Dakota beat United 7-0 in Division di Honor on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.