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Dakota vs United — Division di Honor 2019

Dakota
Dakota
FT
4 – 1
United
United
9/28/2019Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 2Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dakota92%
×Draw5%
United2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dakota
4.79
United
0.83

Dakota creates 477% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 5 away

creates per match

Dakota
2.79
United
0.40

allows per match

Dakota
1.26
United
6.80

finishing

Dakota+0.00on par
United+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dakota ↓

United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (10%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
76%24%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Dakota or draw
98%
Dakota or United
95%
Draw or United
8%

Winning margin

Dakota wins by 2+
82%
United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Dakota 1+ goals
99%
Dakota 2+ goals
94%
Dakota 3+ goals
82%
United 1+ goals
56%
United 2+ goals
20%
United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dakota (draw refunded)
97%
United (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dakota at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.26 · 72 matches

United away — creates 0.40, concedes 6.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dakota attack 2.79 + United defence 6.80 → ÷2 → 4.79

United attack 0.40 + Dakota defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Dakota scores more
92%
level
5%
United scores more
2%

Dakota at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Dakota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dakota 4 – 1 United

Dakota beat United 4-1 in Division di Honor on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.