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United PDX vs Tacoma Stars — USL League Two 2018

United PDX
United PDX
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tacoma Stars
Tacoma Stars
7/10/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 19Lincoln High School Track & Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

United PDX59%
×Draw20%
Tacoma Stars21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

United PDX
2.25
Tacoma Stars
1.26

United PDX creates 79% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

creates per match

United PDX
2.08
Tacoma Stars
1.38

allows per match

United PDX
1.15
Tacoma Stars
2.43

finishing

United PDX+0.00on par
Tacoma Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United PDX ↓

Tacoma Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

United PDX or draw
79%
United PDX or Tacoma Stars
80%
Draw or Tacoma Stars
41%

Winning margin

United PDX wins by 2+
37%
Tacoma Stars wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

United PDX 1+ goals
89%
United PDX 2+ goals
65%
United PDX 3+ goals
39%
Tacoma Stars 1+ goals
72%
Tacoma Stars 2+ goals
36%
Tacoma Stars 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

United PDX (draw refunded)
74%
Tacoma Stars (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United PDX at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Tacoma Stars away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United PDX attack 2.08 + Tacoma Stars defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.25

Tacoma Stars attack 1.38 + United PDX defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

United PDX scores more
59%
level
20%
Tacoma Stars scores more
21%

United PDX at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "United PDX will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: United PDX vs Tacoma Stars

United PDX beat Tacoma Stars 1-0 in USL League Two on July 10, 2024.

The match was played at Lincoln High School Track & Field in Portland, Oregon.