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Tacoma Stars vs United PDX — USL League Two 2018

Tacoma Stars
Tacoma Stars
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
United PDX
United PDX
6/20/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 12Bellarmine Memorial Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Tacoma Stars36%
×Draw22%
United PDX43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacoma Stars
1.77
United PDX
1.94

United PDX creates 10% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

creates per match

Tacoma Stars
2.05
United PDX
1.64

allows per match

Tacoma Stars
2.24
United PDX
1.50

finishing

Tacoma Stars+0.00on par
United PDX+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacoma Stars ↓

United PDX →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Tacoma Stars or draw
57%
Tacoma Stars or United PDX
78%
Draw or United PDX
64%

Winning margin

Tacoma Stars wins by 2+
18%
United PDX wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Tacoma Stars 1+ goals
83%
Tacoma Stars 2+ goals
53%
Tacoma Stars 3+ goals
26%
United PDX 1+ goals
86%
United PDX 2+ goals
58%
United PDX 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Tacoma Stars (draw refunded)
46%
United PDX (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacoma Stars at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

United PDX away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacoma Stars attack 2.05 + United PDX defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.77

United PDX attack 1.64 + Tacoma Stars defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tacoma Stars scores more
36%
level
22%
United PDX scores more
43%

United PDX at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "United PDX will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Tacoma Stars 1–2 United PDX

United PDX beat Tacoma Stars 2-1 in USL League Two on June 20, 2024.

The match was played at Bellarmine Memorial Field in Tacoma, Washington.