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United PDX vs PDX — USL League Two 2018

United PDX
United PDX
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
PDX
PDX
6/17/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 8Oregon Episcopal School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

United PDX62%
×Draw19%
PDX19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

United PDX
2.34
PDX
1.21

United PDX creates 93% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

creates per match

United PDX
2.08
PDX
1.28

allows per match

United PDX
1.15
PDX
2.61

finishing

United PDX+0.00on par
PDX+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United PDX ↓

PDX →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

United PDX or draw
81%
United PDX or PDX
81%
Draw or PDX
38%

Winning margin

United PDX wins by 2+
40%
PDX wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

United PDX 1+ goals
90%
United PDX 2+ goals
67%
United PDX 3+ goals
41%
PDX 1+ goals
70%
PDX 2+ goals
34%
PDX 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

United PDX (draw refunded)
77%
PDX (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United PDX at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

PDX away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United PDX attack 2.08 + PDX defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.34

PDX attack 1.28 + United PDX defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

United PDX scores more
62%
level
19%
PDX scores more
19%

United PDX at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "United PDX will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

United PDX 2 – 1 PDX

United PDX beat PDX 2-1 in USL League Two on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at Oregon Episcopal School in Portland, Oregon.