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PDX vs United PDX — USL League Two 2018

PDX
PDX
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
United PDX
United PDX
7/2/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 12Sam Barlow High School Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

PDX32%
×Draw21%
United PDX47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PDX
1.69
United PDX
2.07

United PDX creates 22% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

PDX
1.89
United PDX
1.64

allows per match

PDX
2.50
United PDX
1.50

finishing

PDX+0.00on par
United PDX+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PDX ↓

United PDX →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

PDX or draw
53%
PDX or United PDX
79%
Draw or United PDX
68%

Winning margin

PDX wins by 2+
16%
United PDX wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

PDX 1+ goals
82%
PDX 2+ goals
50%
PDX 3+ goals
24%
United PDX 1+ goals
87%
United PDX 2+ goals
61%
United PDX 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

PDX (draw refunded)
41%
United PDX (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PDX at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

United PDX away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PDX attack 1.89 + United PDX defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

United PDX attack 1.64 + PDX defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

PDX scores more
32%
level
21%
United PDX scores more
47%

United PDX at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "United PDX will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PDX 0 – 5 United PDX

United PDX beat PDX 5-0 in USL League Two on July 2, 2023.

The match was played at Sam Barlow High School Football Field in Gresham, Oregon.