United PDX 1–2 Ballard: Result & Stats

United PDX

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Ballard

5/29/2023

USL League Two · Western Conference - 4Oregon Episcopal School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

United PDX33%

×Draw23%

Ballard45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

United PDXExpected goals in this matchBallard

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.83

United PDX

1.54

Ballard

1.83

Ballard creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 35 away

2.08

creates per match

2.51

1.15

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

United PDX

2.08

Ballard

2.51

allows per match

United PDX

1.15

Ballard

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

United PDX+0.00on par

Ballard+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United PDX ↓

Ballard →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

United PDX or draw

55%

United PDX or Ballard

77%

Draw or Ballard

67%

Winning margin

United PDX wins by 2+

15%

Ballard wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

United PDX 1+ goals

79%

United PDX 2+ goals

45%

United PDX 3+ goals

20%

Ballard 1+ goals

84%

Ballard 2+ goals

54%

Ballard 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

United PDX (draw refunded)

42%

Ballard (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United PDX at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Ballard away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United PDX attack 2.08 + Ballard defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ballard attack 2.51 + United PDX defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

United PDX scores more

33%

level

23%

Ballard scores more

45%

Ballard at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ballard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: United PDX 1–2 Ballard

Ballard beat United PDX 2-1 in USL League Two on May 29, 2023.

The match was played at Oregon Episcopal School in Portland, Oregon.

United PDX vs Ballard — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: United PDX 1–2 Ballard