Ballard 4–1 United PDX: Result & Stats

Ballard

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

United PDX

7/16/2023

USL League Two · Western Conference - 15Interbay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ballard59%

×Draw20%

United PDX20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BallardExpected goals in this matchUnited PDX

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.21

Ballard

2.19

United PDX

1.21

Ballard creates 81% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 14 away

2.88

creates per match

1.64

0.77

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Ballard

2.88

United PDX

1.64

allows per match

Ballard

0.77

United PDX

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ballard+0.00on par

United PDX+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballard ↓

United PDX →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Ballard or draw

80%

Ballard or United PDX

80%

Draw or United PDX

41%

Winning margin

Ballard wins by 2+

37%

United PDX wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ballard 1+ goals

89%

Ballard 2+ goals

64%

Ballard 3+ goals

37%

United PDX 1+ goals

70%

United PDX 2+ goals

34%

United PDX 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ballard (draw refunded)

74%

United PDX (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballard at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

United PDX away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballard attack 2.88 + United PDX defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.19

United PDX attack 1.64 + Ballard defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ballard scores more

59%

level

20%

United PDX scores more

20%

Ballard at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ballard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff