Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

United of Manchester vs Hednesford Town — League #59 2026

United of Manchester
United of Manchester
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hednesford Town
Hednesford Town
M. Grivosti 43'
O. Sterling-James 90+1'
J. Jervis 85'
4/6/2026League #59League #59 · Round 39Broadhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

United of Manchester49%
×Draw24%
Hednesford Town27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

United of Manchester
1.67
Hednesford Town
1.19

United of Manchester creates 40% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

United of Manchester
2.11
Hednesford Town
1.38

allows per match

United of Manchester
1.00
Hednesford Town
1.23

finishing

United of Manchester+0.00on par
Hednesford Town+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United of Manchester ↓

Hednesford Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

United of Manchester or draw
73%
United of Manchester or Hednesford Town
76%
Draw or Hednesford Town
51%

Winning margin

United of Manchester wins by 2+
26%
Hednesford Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

United of Manchester 1+ goals
81%
United of Manchester 2+ goals
50%
United of Manchester 3+ goals
23%
Hednesford Town 1+ goals
70%
Hednesford Town 2+ goals
33%
Hednesford Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

United of Manchester (draw refunded)
64%
Hednesford Town (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United of Manchester at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Hednesford Town away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United of Manchester attack 2.11 + Hednesford Town defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hednesford Town attack 1.38 + United of Manchester defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

United of Manchester scores more
49%
level
24%
Hednesford Town scores more
27%

United of Manchester at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "United of Manchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
M. Grivosti
85'
J. Jervis
90+1'
O. Sterling-James

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

United of Manchester 1 – 2 Hednesford Town

Hednesford Town beat United of Manchester 2-1 in League #59 on April 6, 2026.

Goals: M. Grivosti (43'), J. Jervis (85'), O. Sterling-James (90+1').

The match was played at Broadhurst Park in Manchester.