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Hednesford Town vs United of Manchester — League #59 2026

Hednesford Town
Hednesford Town
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
United of Manchester
United of Manchester
D. McHale 42'
R. Grewal 57'
12/27/2025League #59League #59 · Round 24Keys Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Hednesford Town69%
×Draw20%
United of Manchester12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hednesford Town
2.00
United of Manchester
0.67

Hednesford Town creates 199% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hednesford Town
2.00
United of Manchester
0.89

allows per match

Hednesford Town
0.45
United of Manchester
2.00

finishing

Hednesford Town+0.00on par
United of Manchester+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hednesford Town ↓

United of Manchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hednesford Town or draw
88%
Hednesford Town or United of Manchester
80%
Draw or United of Manchester
31%

Winning margin

Hednesford Town wins by 2+
43%
United of Manchester wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Hednesford Town 1+ goals
86%
Hednesford Town 2+ goals
59%
Hednesford Town 3+ goals
32%
United of Manchester 1+ goals
49%
United of Manchester 2+ goals
15%
United of Manchester 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Hednesford Town (draw refunded)
86%
United of Manchester (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hednesford Town at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

United of Manchester away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hednesford Town attack 2.00 + United of Manchester defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

United of Manchester attack 0.89 + Hednesford Town defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Hednesford Town scores more
69%
level
20%
United of Manchester scores more
12%

Hednesford Town at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Hednesford Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
D. McHale
57'
R. Grewal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hednesford Town 1 – 1 United of Manchester

Hednesford Town and United of Manchester drew 1-1 in League #59 on December 27, 2025.

Goals: D. McHale (42'), R. Grewal (57').

The match was played at Keys Park in Hednesford, Staffordshire.