United Nordic 1–0 Umea FF: Result & Stats

United Nordic

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Umea FF

5/4/2025

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 6Sodertalje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

United Nordic69%

×Draw18%

Umea FF13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

United NordicExpected goals in this matchUmea FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

0.90

United Nordic

2.34

Umea FF

0.90

United Nordic creates 160% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

2.31

creates per match

0.83

0.96

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

United Nordic

2.31

Umea FF

0.83

allows per match

United Nordic

0.96

Umea FF

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

United Nordic+0.00on par

Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United Nordic ↓

Umea FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

United Nordic or draw

87%

United Nordic or Umea FF

82%

Draw or Umea FF

31%

Winning margin

United Nordic wins by 2+

46%

Umea FF wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

United Nordic 1+ goals

90%

United Nordic 2+ goals

67%

United Nordic 3+ goals

41%

Umea FF 1+ goals

59%

Umea FF 2+ goals

23%

Umea FF 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

United Nordic (draw refunded)

84%

Umea FF (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United Nordic at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.96 · 45 matches

Umea FF away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United Nordic attack 2.31 + Umea FF defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.34

Umea FF attack 0.83 + United Nordic defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

United Nordic scores more

69%

level

18%

Umea FF scores more

13%

United Nordic at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "United Nordic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff