Umea FF 0–2 United Nordic: Result & Stats

Umea FF

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

United Nordic

8/17/2025

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 18Umea Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Umea FF22%

×Draw21%

United Nordic58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Umea FFExpected goals in this matchUnited Nordic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.15

Umea FF

1.25

United Nordic

2.15

United Nordic creates 72% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

1.18

creates per match

1.98

2.32

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Umea FF

1.18

United Nordic

1.98

allows per match

Umea FF

2.32

United Nordic

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Umea FF+0.00on par

United Nordic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umea FF ↓

United Nordic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Umea FF or draw

42%

Umea FF or United Nordic

79%

Draw or United Nordic

78%

Winning margin

Umea FF wins by 2+

9%

United Nordic wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Umea FF 1+ goals

71%

Umea FF 2+ goals

36%

Umea FF 3+ goals

13%

United Nordic 1+ goals

88%

United Nordic 2+ goals

63%

United Nordic 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Umea FF (draw refunded)

27%

United Nordic (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umea FF at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.32 · 60 matches

United Nordic away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.31 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umea FF attack 1.18 + United Nordic defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

United Nordic attack 1.98 + Umea FF defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Umea FF scores more

22%

level

21%

United Nordic scores more

58%

United Nordic at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "United Nordic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff