United Nordic 0–1 Dalkurd FF: Result & Stats

United Nordic

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dalkurd FF

5/20/2023

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 9Södertälje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

United Nordic52%

×Draw23%

Dalkurd FF26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

United NordicExpected goals in this matchDalkurd FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.23

United Nordic

1.84

Dalkurd FF

1.23

United Nordic creates 50% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

2.31

creates per match

1.50

0.96

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

United Nordic

2.31

Dalkurd FF

1.50

allows per match

United Nordic

0.96

Dalkurd FF

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

United Nordic+0.00on par

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United Nordic ↓

Dalkurd FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

United Nordic or draw

74%

United Nordic or Dalkurd FF

77%

Draw or Dalkurd FF

48%

Winning margin

United Nordic wins by 2+

29%

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

United Nordic 1+ goals

84%

United Nordic 2+ goals

55%

United Nordic 3+ goals

28%

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

71%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

35%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

United Nordic (draw refunded)

67%

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United Nordic at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.96 · 45 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United Nordic attack 2.31 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.84

Dalkurd FF attack 1.50 + United Nordic defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

United Nordic scores more

52%

level

23%

Dalkurd FF scores more

26%

United Nordic at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "United Nordic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff