Dalkurd FF 1–2 United Nordic: Result & Stats

Dalkurd FF

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

United Nordic

S. Wikman 88'

C. Ceylan 90+6'

S. Shhab 19'

9/23/2023

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 23Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dalkurd FF44%

×Draw23%

United Nordic33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalkurd FFExpected goals in this matchUnited Nordic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.46

Dalkurd FF

1.72

United Nordic

1.46

Dalkurd FF creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

2.13

creates per match

1.98

0.93

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Dalkurd FF

2.13

United Nordic

1.98

allows per match

Dalkurd FF

0.93

United Nordic

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

United Nordic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

United Nordic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw

67%

Dalkurd FF or United Nordic

77%

Draw or United Nordic

56%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

23%

United Nordic wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

82%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

51%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

25%

United Nordic 1+ goals

77%

United Nordic 2+ goals

43%

United Nordic 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

57%

United Nordic (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

United Nordic away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.31 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 2.13 + United Nordic defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.72

United Nordic attack 1.98 + Dalkurd FF defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more

44%

level

23%

United Nordic scores more

33%

Dalkurd FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

69'

69'

69'

77'

B. Rahmani← Haron Ahmed Zubair

84'

A. Harabi← S. Shhab

88'

S. Wikman

90+7'

C. Ceylan

90+1'

O. Ali← F. Rabet

90+3'

M. Fazal← J. Gürsac

90+6'

C. Ceylan

Dalkurd

United

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Azrafshan

69'▲M. Kargbo←▼R. Deprem

69'▲S. Wikman←▼O. Alvers

77'▲B. Rahmani←▼Haron Ahmed Zubair

90+1'▲O. Ali←▼F. Rabet

Dalkurd FF substitutes

KargboWikmanRahmaniAliErnströmNtuliHenriksson-Liljedahl

Manager: H. Bezgin

69'▲C. Ceylan←▼M. Laci

84'▲A. Harabi←▼S. Shhab

90+3'▲M. Fazal←▼J. Gürsac

United Nordic substitutes

CeylanHarabiFazalRajamohanTahanDaneylBjörklund