United Arab Emirates 2–0 Thailand: Result & Stats

United Arab Emirates

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Thailand

Abdul Salam Mohammed 79'

Hareb Abdullah Suhail 55'

3/28/2023

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Al Nahyan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

United Arab Emirates51%

×Draw26%

Thailand24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

United Arab EmiratesExpected goals in this matchThailand

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.96

United Arab Emirates

1.54

Thailand

0.96

United Arab Emirates creates 60% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 8 away

1.46

creates per match

0.88

1.04

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

United Arab Emirates

1.46

Thailand

0.88

allows per match

United Arab Emirates

1.04

Thailand

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

United Arab Emirates+0.00on par

Thailand+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United Arab Emirates ↓

Thailand →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

United Arab Emirates or draw

76%

United Arab Emirates or Thailand

74%

Draw or Thailand

49%

Winning margin

United Arab Emirates wins by 2+

26%

Thailand wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

United Arab Emirates 1+ goals

79%

United Arab Emirates 2+ goals

45%

United Arab Emirates 3+ goals

20%

Thailand 1+ goals

62%

Thailand 2+ goals

25%

Thailand 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

United Arab Emirates (draw refunded)

68%

Thailand (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United Arab Emirates at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Thailand away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United Arab Emirates attack 1.46 + Thailand defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Thailand attack 0.88 + United Arab Emirates defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

United Arab Emirates scores more

51%

level

26%

Thailand scores more

24%

United Arab Emirates at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "United Arab Emirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Khalid Eisa

United Arab Emirates · G

8.2

Match Events

46'

Poramet Aejwirai← Supachai Chaided

46'

Thossawat Limwannasthian← Thitipan Puangchan

46'

Suphanan Bureerat← Nicholas Mickelson

55'

Hareb Abdullah Suhail↳ Tahnoon Alzaabi

66'

Worachit Kanitsribumphen← Suphanat Mueanta

67'

Chanukan Karin← Supachok Sarachart

71'

Bilal Abdullah

71'

Abdulla Salmeen← Tahnoon Alzaabi

78'

Majid Rashid← Bilal Abdullah

78'

Ahmed Amer← Ahmed Amer

79'

Abdul Salam Mohammed↳ Abdallah Ramadan

79'

Abdulaziz Hussain← Abdulla Al Karbi

84'

Abdallah Ramadan

89'

Khaled Al-Blooshi← Hareb Abdullah Suhail

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnitedThailand

Overview

55%Possession45%

7Total Shots23

1Corners7

14Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots23

5On Target6

2Off Target11

0Blocked6

2Inside Box12

5Outside Box11

Passing

55%Possession45%

555Total Passes436

472Accurate Passes357

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides4