Thailand 1–1 United Arab Emirates: Result & Stats

Thailand

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

United Arab Emirates

M. Tossakai 69'

Ali Ahmed Mabkhout 90+3'

6/13/2017

League #30 · 3rd Round - 8Rajamangala National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Thailand40%

×Draw28%

United Arab Emirates33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ThailandExpected goals in this matchUnited Arab Emirates

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.13

Thailand

1.27

United Arab Emirates

1.13

Thailand creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

0.54

1.71

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Thailand

1.00

United Arab Emirates

0.54

allows per match

Thailand

1.71

United Arab Emirates

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thailand+0.00on par

United Arab Emirates+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thailand ↓

United Arab Emirates →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Thailand or draw

67%

Thailand or United Arab Emirates

72%

Draw or United Arab Emirates

60%

Winning margin

Thailand wins by 2+

18%

United Arab Emirates wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Thailand 1+ goals

72%

Thailand 2+ goals

36%

Thailand 3+ goals

14%

United Arab Emirates 1+ goals

68%

United Arab Emirates 2+ goals

31%

United Arab Emirates 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Thailand (draw refunded)

55%

United Arab Emirates (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thailand at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

United Arab Emirates away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thailand attack 1.00 + United Arab Emirates defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

United Arab Emirates attack 0.54 + Thailand defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Thailand scores more

40%

level

28%

United Arab Emirates scores more

33%

Thailand at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Thailand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Mohammed Fawzi← Abdulaziz Sanqour

62'

Ali Mabkhout

66'

Tariq Ahmed← Ahmed Khalil

69'

M. Tossakai

73'

Ismaeil Matar← Khamis Esmail

89'

Sanrawat Dechmitr

90+3'

W. Playnum← A. Kraisorn

90+4'

N. Sriyarngem← M. Tossakai

90+6'

B. Phala← S. Chatthong

90+3'

Ali Ahmed Mabkhout↳ Ismaeil Matar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ThailandUnited

Overview

35%Possession65%

8Total Shots17

2Corners5

11Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots17

2On Target7

5Off Target7

1Blocked3

7Inside Box9

1Outside Box8

Passing

35%Possession65%

278Total Passes501

200Accurate Passes425

72%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1