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Unistars vs Brazil Juniors — Division di Honor 2019

Unistars
Unistars
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Brazil Juniors
Brazil Juniors
4/12/2026Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Relegation - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Unistars19%
×Draw17%
Brazil Juniors64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unistars
1.64
Brazil Juniors
2.99

Brazil Juniors creates 82% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Unistars
0.50
Brazil Juniors
1.89

allows per match

Unistars
4.10
Brazil Juniors
2.78

finishing

Unistars+0.00on par
Brazil Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unistars ↓

Brazil Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Unistars or draw
36%
Unistars or Brazil Juniors
83%
Draw or Brazil Juniors
81%

Winning margin

Unistars wins by 2+
9%
Brazil Juniors wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Unistars 1+ goals
81%
Unistars 2+ goals
49%
Unistars 3+ goals
23%
Brazil Juniors 1+ goals
95%
Brazil Juniors 2+ goals
79%
Brazil Juniors 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Unistars (draw refunded)
23%
Brazil Juniors (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unistars at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.10 · 10 matches

Brazil Juniors away — creates 1.89, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unistars attack 0.50 + Brazil Juniors defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Brazil Juniors attack 1.89 + Unistars defence 4.10 → ÷2 → 2.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Unistars scores more
19%
level
17%
Brazil Juniors scores more
64%

Brazil Juniors at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Brazil Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unistars vs Brazil Juniors

Brazil Juniors beat Unistars 3-1 in Division di Honor on April 12, 2026.