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Brazil Juniors vs Unistars — Division di Honor 2019

Brazil Juniors
Brazil Juniors
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Unistars
Unistars
5/19/2026Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Relegation round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Brazil Juniors73%
×Draw14%
Unistars13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brazil Juniors
3.40
Unistars
1.46

Brazil Juniors creates 133% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Brazil Juniors
1.92
Unistars
0.67

allows per match

Brazil Juniors
2.25
Unistars
4.89

finishing

Brazil Juniors+0.00on par
Unistars+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brazil Juniors ↓

Unistars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Brazil Juniors or draw
87%
Brazil Juniors or Unistars
86%
Draw or Unistars
27%

Winning margin

Brazil Juniors wins by 2+
54%
Unistars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Brazil Juniors 1+ goals
96%
Brazil Juniors 2+ goals
84%
Brazil Juniors 3+ goals
64%
Unistars 1+ goals
77%
Unistars 2+ goals
43%
Unistars 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Brazil Juniors (draw refunded)
85%
Unistars (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brazil Juniors at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Unistars away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brazil Juniors attack 1.92 + Unistars defence 4.89 → ÷2 → 3.40

Unistars attack 0.67 + Brazil Juniors defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Brazil Juniors scores more
73%
level
14%
Unistars scores more
13%

Brazil Juniors at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Brazil Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brazil Juniors vs Unistars

Brazil Juniors beat Unistars 2-1 in Division di Honor on May 19, 2026.