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Unisport Bafang vs Stade Renard — Elite One 2019

Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
FT
0 – 0
Stade Renard
Stade Renard
4/14/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Unisport Bafang41%
×Draw31%
Stade Renard29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unisport Bafang
1.11
Stade Renard
0.88

Unisport Bafang creates 26% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 96 away

creates per match

Unisport Bafang
1.15
Stade Renard
0.88

allows per match

Unisport Bafang
0.88
Stade Renard
1.07

finishing

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par
Stade Renard+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unisport Bafang ↓

Stade Renard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Unisport Bafang or draw
71%
Unisport Bafang or Stade Renard
69%
Draw or Stade Renard
59%

Winning margin

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
17%
Stade Renard wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
67%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
30%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
10%
Stade Renard 1+ goals
59%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
22%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
59%
Stade Renard (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unisport Bafang at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Stade Renard away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unisport Bafang attack 1.15 + Stade Renard defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Stade Renard attack 0.88 + Unisport Bafang defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Unisport Bafang scores more
41%
level
31%
Stade Renard scores more
29%

Unisport Bafang at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Unisport Bafang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unisport Bafang vs Stade Renard

Unisport Bafang and Stade Renard drew 0-0 in Elite One on April 14, 2019.