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Stade Renard vs Unisport Bafang — Elite One 2019

Stade Renard
Stade Renard
FT
1 – 0
Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
2/27/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 6Stade Municipal de Mélong (Mélong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Stade Renard50%
×Draw26%
Unisport Bafang23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Renard
1.48
Unisport Bafang
0.92

Stade Renard creates 61% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 21 away

creates per match

Stade Renard
1.28
Unisport Bafang
1.10

allows per match

Stade Renard
0.73
Unisport Bafang
1.67

finishing

Stade Renard+0.00on par
Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Renard ↓

Unisport Bafang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stade Renard or draw
77%
Stade Renard or Unisport Bafang
74%
Draw or Unisport Bafang
50%

Winning margin

Stade Renard wins by 2+
25%
Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stade Renard 1+ goals
77%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
43%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
19%
Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
60%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
23%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stade Renard (draw refunded)
68%
Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Renard at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 93 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Renard attack 1.28 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Unisport Bafang attack 1.10 + Stade Renard defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stade Renard scores more
50%
level
26%
Unisport Bafang scores more
23%

Stade Renard at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stade Renard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Stade Renard 1–0 Unisport Bafang

Stade Renard beat Unisport Bafang 1-0 in Elite One on February 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Mélong (Mélong).