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Unisport Bafang vs Fortuna Mfou — Elite One 2019

Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
FT
1 – 1
Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
3/10/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 8Stade Municipal de Mélong (Mélong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Unisport Bafang43%
×Draw28%
Fortuna Mfou29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unisport Bafang
1.27
Fortuna Mfou
0.99

Unisport Bafang creates 28% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 96 away

creates per match

Unisport Bafang
1.15
Fortuna Mfou
1.09

allows per match

Unisport Bafang
0.88
Fortuna Mfou
1.39

finishing

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par
Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unisport Bafang ↓

Fortuna Mfou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Unisport Bafang or draw
71%
Unisport Bafang or Fortuna Mfou
72%
Draw or Fortuna Mfou
57%

Winning margin

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
19%
Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
72%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
36%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
14%
Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
63%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
26%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
60%
Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unisport Bafang at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unisport Bafang attack 1.15 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Unisport Bafang defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unisport Bafang scores more
43%
level
28%
Fortuna Mfou scores more
29%

Unisport Bafang at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Unisport Bafang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unisport Bafang vs Fortuna Mfou

Unisport Bafang and Fortuna Mfou drew 1-1 in Elite One on March 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Mélong (Mélong).