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Fortuna Mfou vs Unisport Bafang — Elite One 2019

Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
3/1/2026Elite OneElite One · Round 8Stade Omnisports Annexe 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Fortuna Mfou44%
×Draw26%
Unisport Bafang30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Mfou
1.48
Unisport Bafang
1.17

Fortuna Mfou creates 26% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 21 away

creates per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.28
Unisport Bafang
1.10

allows per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.23
Unisport Bafang
1.67

finishing

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par
Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Mfou ↓

Unisport Bafang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fortuna Mfou or draw
70%
Fortuna Mfou or Unisport Bafang
74%
Draw or Unisport Bafang
56%

Winning margin

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
22%
Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
77%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
43%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
19%
Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
69%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
33%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
60%
Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Mfou at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 97 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.28 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Unisport Bafang attack 1.10 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fortuna Mfou scores more
44%
level
26%
Unisport Bafang scores more
30%

Fortuna Mfou at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fortuna Mfou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Mfou vs Unisport Bafang

Fortuna Mfou beat Unisport Bafang 3-0 in Elite One on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Annexe 1.