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Unisport Bafang vs Eding Sport — Elite One 2019

Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
FT
0 – 0
Eding Sport
Eding Sport
3/17/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 9Stade Municipal de Mélong (Mélong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Unisport Bafang40%
×Draw30%
Eding Sport30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unisport Bafang
1.14
Eding Sport
0.94

Unisport Bafang creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 54 away

creates per match

Unisport Bafang
1.15
Eding Sport
1.00

allows per match

Unisport Bafang
0.88
Eding Sport
1.13

finishing

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par
Eding Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unisport Bafang ↓

Eding Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Unisport Bafang or draw
70%
Unisport Bafang or Eding Sport
70%
Draw or Eding Sport
60%

Winning margin

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
17%
Eding Sport wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
68%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
32%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
11%
Eding Sport 1+ goals
61%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
24%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
57%
Eding Sport (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unisport Bafang at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Eding Sport away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unisport Bafang attack 1.15 + Eding Sport defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Eding Sport attack 1.00 + Unisport Bafang defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Unisport Bafang scores more
40%
level
30%
Eding Sport scores more
30%

Unisport Bafang at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Unisport Bafang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Unisport Bafang 0–0 Eding Sport

Unisport Bafang and Eding Sport drew 0-0 in Elite One on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Mélong (Mélong).