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Eding Sport vs Unisport Bafang — Elite Two 2020

Eding Sport
Eding Sport
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
6/18/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Championship Group

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Eding Sport38%
×Draw26%
Unisport Bafang36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eding Sport
1.33
Unisport Bafang
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 38 away

creates per match

Eding Sport
1.60
Unisport Bafang
1.05

allows per match

Eding Sport
1.53
Unisport Bafang
1.05

finishing

Eding Sport+0.00on par
Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eding Sport ↓

Unisport Bafang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Eding Sport or draw
64%
Eding Sport or Unisport Bafang
74%
Draw or Unisport Bafang
62%

Winning margin

Eding Sport wins by 2+
17%
Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Eding Sport 1+ goals
74%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
38%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
15%
Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
72%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
37%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Eding Sport (draw refunded)
51%
Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eding Sport at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eding Sport attack 1.60 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.33

Unisport Bafang attack 1.05 + Eding Sport defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Eding Sport scores more
38%
level
26%
Unisport Bafang scores more
36%

Eding Sport at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Eding Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Eding Sport 0–5 Unisport Bafang

Unisport Bafang beat Eding Sport 5-0 in Elite Two on June 18, 2025.