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Unisport Bafang vs Aigle Royal de Moungo — Elite Two 2020

Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
FT
1 – 1
Aigle Royal de Moungo
Aigle Royal de Moungo
11/8/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Unisport Bafang43%
×Draw25%
Aigle Royal de Moungo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unisport Bafang
1.56
Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.34

Unisport Bafang creates 16% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 22 away

creates per match

Unisport Bafang
1.77
Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.64

allows per match

Unisport Bafang
1.05
Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.36

finishing

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par
Aigle Royal de Moungo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unisport Bafang ↓

Aigle Royal de Moungo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Unisport Bafang or draw
67%
Unisport Bafang or Aigle Royal de Moungo
75%
Draw or Aigle Royal de Moungo
57%

Winning margin

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
21%
Aigle Royal de Moungo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
79%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
46%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
21%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 1+ goals
74%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 2+ goals
39%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
56%
Aigle Royal de Moungo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unisport Bafang at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

Aigle Royal de Moungo away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unisport Bafang attack 1.77 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.56

Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 1.64 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unisport Bafang scores more
43%
level
25%
Aigle Royal de Moungo scores more
33%

Unisport Bafang at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Unisport Bafang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unisport Bafang vs Aigle Royal de Moungo

Unisport Bafang and Aigle Royal de Moungo drew 1-1 in Elite Two on November 8, 2023.