Aigle Royal de Moungo 0–1 Unisport Bafang

Aigle Royal de Moungo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Unisport Bafang

3/23/2026

Elite One · Round 11Stade Municipal de Melong

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Aigle Royal de Moungo41%

×Draw28%

Unisport Bafang31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aigle Royal de MoungoExpected goals in this matchUnisport Bafang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.08

Aigle Royal de Moungo

1.28

Unisport Bafang

1.08

Aigle Royal de Moungo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 21 away

0.89

creates per match

1.10

1.07

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo

0.89

Unisport Bafang

1.10

allows per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo

1.07

Unisport Bafang

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aigle Royal de Moungo+0.00on par

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal de Moungo ↓

Unisport Bafang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Aigle Royal de Moungo or draw

69%

Aigle Royal de Moungo or Unisport Bafang

72%

Draw or Unisport Bafang

59%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal de Moungo wins by 2+

18%

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Aigle Royal de Moungo 1+ goals

72%

Aigle Royal de Moungo 2+ goals

37%

Aigle Royal de Moungo 3+ goals

14%

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals

66%

Unisport Bafang 2+ goals

29%

Unisport Bafang 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal de Moungo (draw refunded)

57%

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal de Moungo at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 0.89 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Unisport Bafang attack 1.10 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Aigle Royal de Moungo scores more

41%

level

28%

Unisport Bafang scores more

31%

Aigle Royal de Moungo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Aigle Royal de Moungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff