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Unirea Ungheni vs SCM Zalău — Liga III - Play-offs 2022

Unirea Ungheni
Unirea Ungheniadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SCM Zalău
SCM Zalău
5/22/2024Liga III - Play-offsLiga III - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsStadionul Unirea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Unirea Ungheni55%
×Draw26%
SCM Zalău19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Ungheni
1.55
SCM Zalău
0.80

Unirea Ungheni creates 94% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Unirea Ungheni
1.50
SCM Zalău
0.60

allows per match

Unirea Ungheni
1.00
SCM Zalău
1.60

finishing

Unirea Ungheni+0.00on par
SCM Zalău+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Ungheni ↓

SCM Zalău →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Unirea Ungheni or draw
81%
Unirea Ungheni or SCM Zalău
74%
Draw or SCM Zalău
45%

Winning margin

Unirea Ungheni wins by 2+
29%
SCM Zalău wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Unirea Ungheni 1+ goals
79%
Unirea Ungheni 2+ goals
46%
Unirea Ungheni 3+ goals
20%
SCM Zalău 1+ goals
55%
SCM Zalău 2+ goals
19%
SCM Zalău 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Unirea Ungheni (draw refunded)
74%
SCM Zalău (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Ungheni at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

SCM Zalău away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Ungheni attack 1.50 + SCM Zalău defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

SCM Zalău attack 0.60 + Unirea Ungheni defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Unirea Ungheni scores more
55%
level
26%
SCM Zalău scores more
19%

Unirea Ungheni at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Unirea Ungheni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Play-offs: Unirea Ungheni 3–0 SCM Zalău

Unirea Ungheni beat SCM Zalău 3-0 in Liga III - Play-offs on May 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Unirea in Ungheni.