SCM Zalău vs Unirea Ungheni — Liga III - Play-offs 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
SCM Zalău62%
Unirea Ungheni17%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
SCM Zalău creates 108% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
SCM Zalău ↓
Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
SCM Zalău at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches
Unirea Ungheni away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
SCM Zalău attack 1.80 + Unirea Ungheni defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.02
Unirea Ungheni attack 1.75 + SCM Zalău defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 62%?"
SCM Zalău at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 62% does not mean "SCM Zalău will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Popești-Leordeni
Cetatea Suceava
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
Unirea Alba Iulia
Minerul Lupeni
FC Politehnica Timisoara
Soimii Gura Humorului
ŞtefăneştiSCM Zalău
Sănătatea Cluj
Stiinta Miroslava
Minaur Baia Mare
CS U Craiova II
Flacăra Moreni
Viitorul Onesti
Olimpic Zărneşti
Unirea Tășnad
Agricola Borcea
Sporting Lieşti
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti
Cetatea
Târgu Secuiesc
Jiul Petroşani
Înainte Modelu
Tricolorul Breaza
Academica Balș
Dunarea Calarasi
LPS HD Clinceni
Metalurgistul Cugir
Blejoi
Sepsi II
Viitorul AradIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
SCM Zalău host Unirea Ungheni on Saturday, 25 May 2024 at 14:30. The match is part of the Liga III - Play-offs 2022/2023 season.
SCM Zalău 1 – 1 Unirea Ungheni
SCM Zalău and Unirea Ungheni drew 1-1 in Liga III - Play-offs on May 25, 2024.
The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Zalău.