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Unirea Ungheni vs Focşani — Liga II 2018

Unirea Ungheni
Unirea Ungheni
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Focşani
Focşani
12/14/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 17Stadionul Unirea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Unirea Ungheni48%
×Draw31%
Focşani21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Ungheni
1.17
Focşani
0.67

Unirea Ungheni creates 75% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Unirea Ungheni
1.00
Focşani
0.42

allows per match

Unirea Ungheni
0.92
Focşani
1.33

finishing

Unirea Ungheni+0.00on par
Focşani+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Ungheni ↓

Focşani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Unirea Ungheni or draw
79%
Unirea Ungheni or Focşani
69%
Draw or Focşani
52%

Winning margin

Unirea Ungheni wins by 2+
21%
Focşani wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Unirea Ungheni 1+ goals
69%
Unirea Ungheni 2+ goals
33%
Unirea Ungheni 3+ goals
11%
Focşani 1+ goals
49%
Focşani 2+ goals
15%
Focşani 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Unirea Ungheni (draw refunded)
69%
Focşani (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Ungheni at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Focşani away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Ungheni attack 1.00 + Focşani defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Focşani attack 0.42 + Unirea Ungheni defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Unirea Ungheni scores more
48%
level
31%
Focşani scores more
21%

Unirea Ungheni at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Unirea Ungheni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Unirea Ungheni 1–1 Focşani

Unirea Ungheni and Focşani drew 1-1 in Liga II on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Unirea in Ungheni.