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Focşani vs Unirea Ungheni — Liga II 2018

Focşani
Focşani
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Unirea Ungheni
Unirea Ungheni
4/5/2025Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 2Stadionul Milcovul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Focşani44%
×Draw29%
Unirea Ungheni27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Focşani
1.24
Unirea Ungheni
0.89

Focşani creates 39% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Focşani
0.86
Unirea Ungheni
0.77

allows per match

Focşani
1.00
Unirea Ungheni
1.62

finishing

Focşani+0.00on par
Unirea Ungheni+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Focşani ↓

Unirea Ungheni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Focşani or draw
73%
Focşani or Unirea Ungheni
71%
Draw or Unirea Ungheni
56%

Winning margin

Focşani wins by 2+
20%
Unirea Ungheni wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Focşani 1+ goals
71%
Focşani 2+ goals
35%
Focşani 3+ goals
13%
Unirea Ungheni 1+ goals
59%
Unirea Ungheni 2+ goals
22%
Unirea Ungheni 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Focşani (draw refunded)
63%
Unirea Ungheni (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Focşani at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Unirea Ungheni away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Focşani attack 0.86 + Unirea Ungheni defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.24

Unirea Ungheni attack 0.77 + Focşani defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Focşani scores more
44%
level
29%
Unirea Ungheni scores more
27%

Focşani at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Focşani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Focşani 3–0 Unirea Ungheni

Focşani beat Unirea Ungheni 3-0 in Liga II on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Milcovul in Focşani.