Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Unirea Ungheni vs Bihor Oradea — Liga III - Play-offs 2022

Unirea Ungheni
Unirea Ungheni
FT
1 – 1
Bihor Oradea
Bihor Oradea
5/24/2023Liga III - Play-offsLiga III - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsStadionul Unirea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Unirea Ungheni43%
×Draw26%
Bihor Oradea31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Ungheni
1.42
Bihor Oradea
1.17

Unirea Ungheni creates 21% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Unirea Ungheni
1.50
Bihor Oradea
1.33

allows per match

Unirea Ungheni
1.00
Bihor Oradea
1.33

finishing

Unirea Ungheni+0.00on par
Bihor Oradea+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Ungheni ↓

Bihor Oradea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Unirea Ungheni or draw
69%
Unirea Ungheni or Bihor Oradea
74%
Draw or Bihor Oradea
57%

Winning margin

Unirea Ungheni wins by 2+
20%
Bihor Oradea wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Unirea Ungheni 1+ goals
76%
Unirea Ungheni 2+ goals
41%
Unirea Ungheni 3+ goals
17%
Bihor Oradea 1+ goals
69%
Bihor Oradea 2+ goals
33%
Bihor Oradea 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Unirea Ungheni (draw refunded)
58%
Bihor Oradea (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Ungheni at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Bihor Oradea away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Ungheni attack 1.50 + Bihor Oradea defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bihor Oradea attack 1.33 + Unirea Ungheni defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unirea Ungheni scores more
43%
level
26%
Bihor Oradea scores more
31%

Unirea Ungheni at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Unirea Ungheni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unirea Ungheni vs Bihor Oradea

Unirea Ungheni and Bihor Oradea drew 1-1 in Liga III - Play-offs on May 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Unirea in Ungheni.