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Bihor Oradea vs Unirea Ungheni — Liga II 2018

Bihor Oradea
Bihor Oradea
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Unirea Ungheni
Unirea Ungheni
5/10/2025Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 7Stadionul Iuliu Bodola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bihor Oradea49%
×Draw24%
Unirea Ungheni26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bihor Oradea
1.65
Unirea Ungheni
1.14

Bihor Oradea creates 45% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bihor Oradea
1.67
Unirea Ungheni
0.77

allows per match

Bihor Oradea
1.50
Unirea Ungheni
1.62

finishing

Bihor Oradea+0.00on par
Unirea Ungheni+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bihor Oradea ↓

Unirea Ungheni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bihor Oradea or draw
74%
Bihor Oradea or Unirea Ungheni
76%
Draw or Unirea Ungheni
51%

Winning margin

Bihor Oradea wins by 2+
26%
Unirea Ungheni wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bihor Oradea 1+ goals
81%
Bihor Oradea 2+ goals
49%
Bihor Oradea 3+ goals
23%
Unirea Ungheni 1+ goals
68%
Unirea Ungheni 2+ goals
32%
Unirea Ungheni 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bihor Oradea (draw refunded)
65%
Unirea Ungheni (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bihor Oradea at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Unirea Ungheni away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bihor Oradea attack 1.67 + Unirea Ungheni defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.65

Unirea Ungheni attack 0.77 + Bihor Oradea defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bihor Oradea scores more
49%
level
24%
Unirea Ungheni scores more
26%

Bihor Oradea at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bihor Oradea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bihor Oradea vs Unirea Ungheni

Bihor Oradea beat Unirea Ungheni 3-1 in Liga II on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Iuliu Bodola in Oradea.