Unirea Slobozia 0–2 FCSB: Result & Stats | Liga I

Unirea Slobozia

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FCSB

12/15/2025

Liga I · Round 20May 1 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Unirea Slobozia28%

×Draw27%

FCSB45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unirea SloboziaExpected goals in this matchFCSB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.43

Unirea Slobozia

1.06

FCSB

1.43

FCSB creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 155 away

1.05

creates per match

1.51

1.34

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Unirea Slobozia

1.05

FCSB

1.51

allows per match

Unirea Slobozia

1.34

FCSB

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unirea Slobozia+0.00on par

FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Slobozia ↓

FCSB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Unirea Slobozia or draw

55%

Unirea Slobozia or FCSB

73%

Draw or FCSB

72%

Winning margin

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+

11%

FCSB wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals

65%

Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals

29%

Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals

9%

FCSB 1+ goals

76%

FCSB 2+ goals

42%

FCSB 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)

38%

FCSB (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Slobozia at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.07 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.05 + FCSB defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

FCSB attack 1.51 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Unirea Slobozia scores more

28%

level

27%

FCSB scores more

45%

FCSB at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff