Unirea Slobozia 2–1 Farul Constanta: Result & Stats

Unirea Slobozia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Farul Constanta

J. Papeau 90', 43'

D. Alibec 24'

2/7/2026

Liga I · Round 26May 1 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Unirea Slobozia38%

×Draw26%

Farul Constanta35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unirea SloboziaExpected goals in this matchFarul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.27

Unirea Slobozia

1.34

Farul Constanta

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

1.03

creates per match

1.19

1.36

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Unirea Slobozia

1.03

Farul Constanta

1.19

allows per match

Unirea Slobozia

1.36

Farul Constanta

1.65

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Unirea Slobozia+0.02on par

Farul Constanta-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Slobozia ↓

Farul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Unirea Slobozia or draw

65%

Unirea Slobozia or Farul Constanta

74%

Draw or Farul Constanta

62%

Winning margin

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+

17%

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals

74%

Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals

39%

Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals

15%

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

72%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

36%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)

52%

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Slobozia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.36 · 19 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.65 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.03 + Farul Constanta defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Farul Constanta attack 1.19 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Unirea Slobozia scores more

38%

level

26%

Farul Constanta scores more

35%

Unirea Slobozia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Unirea Slobozia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

J. Papeau

Unirea Slobozia · M

9.2

Match Events

24'

43'

45'

45+2'

46'

N. Grigoryan← R. Tanasa

52'

Narek Grigoryan

60'

P. Dulcea← C. Ponde

60'

A. Said← G. Dahan

60'

C. Ganea← B. Tiru

60'

Ramalho← E. Radaslavescu

76'

V. Pop← T. Lungu

80'

I. Doicaru← A. Isfan

87'

J. Vojtus← I. Vina

89'

Victor Dican

90'

J. Papeau↳ A. Dorobantu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnireaFarul

Overview

42%Possession58%

19Total Shots10

2.23Expected Goals (xG)0.84

5Corners4

13Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots10

4On Target4

13Off Target5

2Blocked1

14Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

278Total Passes406

195Accurate Passes322

70%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0