Farul Constanta 1–1 Unirea Slobozia: Result & Stats

Farul Constanta

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Unirea Slobozia

B. Tiru 45'

E. Florescu 56'

9/28/2025

Liga I · Round 11Central Stadium Hagi Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Farul Constanta49%

×Draw23%

Unirea Slobozia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Farul ConstantaExpected goals in this matchUnirea Slobozia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.28

Farul Constanta

1.77

Unirea Slobozia

1.28

Farul Constanta creates 38% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 22 away

1.61

creates per match

0.94

1.63

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Farul Constanta

1.61

Unirea Slobozia

0.94

allows per match

Farul Constanta

1.63

Unirea Slobozia

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par

Unirea Slobozia-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

Unirea Slobozia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw

72%

Farul Constanta or Unirea Slobozia

77%

Draw or Unirea Slobozia

51%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

27%

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

83%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

53%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

26%

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals

72%

Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals

37%

Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

64%

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.63 · 31 matches

Unirea Slobozia away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.61 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.77

Unirea Slobozia attack 0.94 + Farul Constanta defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Farul Constanta scores more

49%

level

23%

Unirea Slobozia scores more

28%

Farul Constanta at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

C. Ganea

Farul Constanta · D

8.5

Match Events

38'

Diogo Ramalho

43'

Vlad Pop

45'

B. Tiru↳ E. Radaslavescu

46'

E. Florescu← P. Dulcea

46'

C. Barbut← R. Espinosa

52'

Victor Dican

56'

E. Florescu↳ F. Purece

57'

C. Sima← I. Cojocaru

62'

I. Coada← V. Pop

62'

64'

69'

73'

80'

N. Grigoryan← R. Tanasa

81'

Alexandru Dinu

90+2'

Ion Gurău

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FarulUnirea

Overview

61%Possession39%

33Total Shots14

1.93Expected Goals (xG)0.70

11Corners4

14Fouls12

Shots

33Total Shots14

7On Target4

12Off Target4

14Blocked6

17Inside Box9

16Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

495Total Passes309

418Accurate Passes231

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow Cards4

4Offsides0