Unirea Slobozia 1–1 Concordia: Result & Stats

Unirea Slobozia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Concordia

5/4/2022

Liga II · Promotion Round - 8Stadionul 1 Mai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Unirea Slobozia43%

×Draw30%

Concordia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unirea SloboziaExpected goals in this matchConcordia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.90

Unirea Slobozia

1.19

Concordia

0.90

Unirea Slobozia creates 32% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 89 away

1.11

creates per match

1.09

0.71

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Unirea Slobozia

1.11

Concordia

1.09

allows per match

Unirea Slobozia

0.71

Concordia

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unirea Slobozia+0.00on par

Concordia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Slobozia ↓

Concordia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Unirea Slobozia or draw

72%

Unirea Slobozia or Concordia

70%

Draw or Concordia

57%

Winning margin

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+

18%

Concordia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals

70%

Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals

33%

Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals

12%

Concordia 1+ goals

59%

Concordia 2+ goals

23%

Concordia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)

61%

Concordia (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Slobozia at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.71 · 56 matches

Concordia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.11 + Concordia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Concordia attack 1.09 + Unirea Slobozia defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unirea Slobozia scores more

43%

level

30%

Concordia scores more

28%

Unirea Slobozia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Unirea Slobozia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff