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Concordia vs Unirea Slobozia — Liga II 2018

Concordia
Concordia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Unirea Slobozia
Unirea Slobozia
9/16/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 7Stadionul Concordia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Concordia38%
×Draw28%
Unirea Slobozia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia
1.22
Unirea Slobozia
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 55 away

creates per match

Concordia
1.35
Unirea Slobozia
1.31

allows per match

Concordia
0.94
Unirea Slobozia
1.09

finishing

Concordia+0.00on par
Unirea Slobozia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia ↓

Unirea Slobozia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Concordia or draw
66%
Concordia or Unirea Slobozia
72%
Draw or Unirea Slobozia
62%

Winning margin

Concordia wins by 2+
16%
Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Concordia 1+ goals
70%
Concordia 2+ goals
34%
Concordia 3+ goals
12%
Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals
68%
Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals
31%
Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Concordia (draw refunded)
53%
Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 93 matches

Unirea Slobozia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.09 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia attack 1.35 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.31 + Concordia defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Concordia scores more
38%
level
28%
Unirea Slobozia scores more
34%

Concordia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Concordia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concordia vs Unirea Slobozia

Concordia and Unirea Slobozia drew 1-1 in Liga II on September 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Concordia in Chiajna.