Unirea Slobozia 2–2 AFC Hermannstadt

Unirea Slobozia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Hermannstadt

C. Ponde 54' (pen)

P. Dulcea 6'

M. Gjorgjievski 90'

S. Bus 82'

5/4/2026

Liga I · Relegation Group - 7May 1 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Unirea Slobozia39%

×Draw26%

AFC Hermannstadt35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unirea SloboziaExpected goals in this matchAFC Hermannstadt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.31

Unirea Slobozia

1.39

AFC Hermannstadt

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

1.10

creates per match

1.21

1.42

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Unirea Slobozia

1.10

AFC Hermannstadt

1.21

allows per match

Unirea Slobozia

1.42

AFC Hermannstadt

1.67

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Unirea Slobozia+0.12scores more

AFC Hermannstadt-0.06on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Slobozia ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Unirea Slobozia or draw

65%

Unirea Slobozia or AFC Hermannstadt

74%

Draw or AFC Hermannstadt

61%

Winning margin

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+

18%

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals

75%

Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals

40%

Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals

16%

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals

73%

AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals

38%

AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)

52%

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Slobozia at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.42 · 23 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.67 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.10 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

AFC Hermannstadt attack 1.21 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Unirea Slobozia scores more

39%

level

26%

AFC Hermannstadt scores more

35%

Unirea Slobozia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Unirea Slobozia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

R. Popa

Unirea Slobozia · G

8.3

Match Events

6'

P. Dulcea↳ M. Antoche

15'

Aviel Zargari

22'

Cristian PondePenalty confirmed

35'

Teodor Lungu

46'

A. Chitu← D. Albu

46'

L. Stancu← T. Capusa

54'

C. PondePenalty

58'

S. Bus← C. Afalna

58'

M. Simba← E. Florescu

65'

D. Yanakov← C. Barbut

65'

O. Safronov← F. Ibrian

74'

G. Dahan← A. Said

74'

V. Pop← C. Ponde

76'

Oleksandr Safronov

77'

M. Gjorgjievski← A. Zargary

82'

S. Bus↳ C. Negut

83'

E. Orozco← C. A. Albu

90+7'

Patrick Dulcea

90'

M. Gjorgjievski↳ S. Balaure

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnireaAFC

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots22

2.10Expected Goals (xG)1.85

6Corners11

13Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots22

6On Target9

3Off Target9

0Blocked4

6Inside Box18

3Outside Box4

Passing

36%Possession64%

250Total Passes415

153Accurate Passes330

61%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0