AFC Hermannstadt 0–2 Unirea Slobozia

AFC Hermannstadt

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Unirea Slobozia

R. Espinosa 88'

C. Afalna 41'

9/15/2025

Liga I · Round 9Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

AFC Hermannstadt50%

×Draw25%

Unirea Slobozia25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC HermannstadtExpected goals in this matchUnirea Slobozia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.09

AFC Hermannstadt

1.65

Unirea Slobozia

1.09

AFC Hermannstadt creates 51% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 22 away

1.36

creates per match

0.94

1.24

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

AFC Hermannstadt

1.36

Unirea Slobozia

0.94

allows per match

AFC Hermannstadt

1.24

Unirea Slobozia

1.94

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

AFC Hermannstadt-0.21scores less

Unirea Slobozia-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Hermannstadt ↓

Unirea Slobozia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AFC Hermannstadt or draw

75%

AFC Hermannstadt or Unirea Slobozia

75%

Draw or Unirea Slobozia

50%

Winning margin

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+

27%

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals

81%

AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals

49%

AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals

23%

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals

66%

Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals

30%

Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)

67%

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Hermannstadt at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.24 · 13 matches

Unirea Slobozia away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Hermannstadt attack 1.36 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.65

Unirea Slobozia attack 0.94 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AFC Hermannstadt scores more

50%

level

25%

Unirea Slobozia scores more

25%

AFC Hermannstadt at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AFC Hermannstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

I. C. Gurau

Unirea Slobozia · G

9.5

Match Events

19'

39'

41'

46'

46'

Jair← A. Oroian

55'

Jair

59'

M. Gjorgjievski← A. Chitu

59'

R. Espinosa← C. Barbut

61'

Valon Hamdiu

64'

Eduard Florescu

71'

Andrei Dragu

72'

C. Toma← A. Dragu

72'

O. Safronov← E. Florescu

77'

I. Coada← V. Pop

77'

A. Jeno← C. Afalna

78'

S. Bus← D. Albu

79'

Kevin Ciubotaru

88'

R. Espinosa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCUnirea

Overview

60%Possession40%

22Total Shots3

2.03Expected Goals (xG)0.62

10Corners2

13Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots3

6On Target2

9Off Target0

7Blocked1

13Inside Box1

9Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

451Total Passes331

385Accurate Passes239

85%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls9

3Yellow Cards4

5Offsides1