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Unirea Dej vs SCM Gloria Buzău — Liga II 2018

Unirea Dej
Unirea Dej
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
5/7/2022Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 7Stadionul Municipal Dej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Unirea Dej35%
×Draw27%
SCM Gloria Buzău38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Dej
1.21
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 66 away

creates per match

Unirea Dej
1.17
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.35

allows per match

Unirea Dej
1.17
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.26

finishing

Unirea Dej+0.00on par
SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Dej ↓

SCM Gloria Buzău →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Unirea Dej or draw
62%
Unirea Dej or SCM Gloria Buzău
73%
Draw or SCM Gloria Buzău
65%

Winning margin

Unirea Dej wins by 2+
15%
SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Unirea Dej 1+ goals
70%
Unirea Dej 2+ goals
34%
Unirea Dej 3+ goals
12%
SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
72%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
36%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Unirea Dej (draw refunded)
48%
SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Dej at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 41 matches

SCM Gloria Buzău away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Dej attack 1.17 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 1.35 + Unirea Dej defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Unirea Dej scores more
35%
level
27%
SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
38%

SCM Gloria Buzău at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SCM Gloria Buzău will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Unirea Dej 3–0 SCM Gloria Buzău

Unirea Dej beat SCM Gloria Buzău 3-0 in Liga II on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Dej in Dej.