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SCM Gloria Buzău vs Unirea Dej — Liga II 2018

SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unirea Dej
Unirea Dej
4/8/2023Liga IILiga II · Promotion Round - 3Stadionul Gloria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

SCM Gloria Buzău52%
×Draw26%
Unirea Dej22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SCM Gloria Buzău
1.48
Unirea Dej
0.86

SCM Gloria Buzău creates 72% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 38 away

creates per match

SCM Gloria Buzău
1.82
Unirea Dej
0.89

allows per match

SCM Gloria Buzău
0.83
Unirea Dej
1.13

finishing

SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par
Unirea Dej+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCM Gloria Buzău ↓

Unirea Dej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

SCM Gloria Buzău or draw
78%
SCM Gloria Buzău or Unirea Dej
74%
Draw or Unirea Dej
48%

Winning margin

SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
26%
Unirea Dej wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
77%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
43%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
19%
Unirea Dej 1+ goals
58%
Unirea Dej 2+ goals
21%
Unirea Dej 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
70%
Unirea Dej (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCM Gloria Buzău at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.83 · 65 matches

Unirea Dej away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 1.82 + Unirea Dej defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.48

Unirea Dej attack 0.89 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
52%
level
26%
Unirea Dej scores more
22%

SCM Gloria Buzău at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SCM Gloria Buzău will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SCM Gloria Buzău vs Unirea Dej

SCM Gloria Buzău and Unirea Dej drew 0-0 in Liga II on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Gloria in Buzău.