Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Unirea Dej vs FC Astra Giurgiu — Liga II 2018

Unirea Dej
Unirea Dej
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
4/22/2022Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 5Stadionul Municipal Dej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Unirea Dej53%
×Draw24%
FC Astra Giurgiu23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Dej
1.71
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.04

Unirea Dej creates 64% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 12 away

creates per match

Unirea Dej
1.17
FC Astra Giurgiu
0.92

allows per match

Unirea Dej
1.17
FC Astra Giurgiu
2.25

finishing

Unirea Dej+0.00on par
FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Dej ↓

FC Astra Giurgiu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Unirea Dej or draw
77%
Unirea Dej or FC Astra Giurgiu
76%
Draw or FC Astra Giurgiu
47%

Winning margin

Unirea Dej wins by 2+
29%
FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Unirea Dej 1+ goals
82%
Unirea Dej 2+ goals
51%
Unirea Dej 3+ goals
24%
FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
65%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
28%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Unirea Dej (draw refunded)
70%
FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Dej at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 41 matches

FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Dej attack 1.17 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.71

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 0.92 + Unirea Dej defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Unirea Dej scores more
53%
level
24%
FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
23%

Unirea Dej at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Unirea Dej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unirea Dej vs FC Astra Giurgiu

Unirea Dej beat FC Astra Giurgiu 1-0 in Liga II on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Dej in Dej.