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FC Astra Giurgiu vs Unirea Dej — Liga II 2018

FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Unirea Dej
Unirea Dej
9/18/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 7Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FC Astra Giurgiu26%
×Draw26%
Unirea Dej48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.06
Unirea Dej
1.52

Unirea Dej creates 43% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 38 away

creates per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.00
Unirea Dej
0.89

allows per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
2.15
Unirea Dej
1.13

finishing

FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par
Unirea Dej+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astra Giurgiu ↓

Unirea Dej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Astra Giurgiu or draw
52%
FC Astra Giurgiu or Unirea Dej
74%
Draw or Unirea Dej
74%

Winning margin

FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
10%
Unirea Dej wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
65%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
29%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
9%
Unirea Dej 1+ goals
78%
Unirea Dej 2+ goals
45%
Unirea Dej 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
36%
Unirea Dej (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astra Giurgiu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Unirea Dej away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.00 + Unirea Dej defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Unirea Dej attack 0.89 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
26%
level
26%
Unirea Dej scores more
48%

Unirea Dej at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Unirea Dej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: FC Astra Giurgiu 0–2 Unirea Dej

Unirea Dej beat FC Astra Giurgiu 2-0 in Liga II on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Marin Anastasovici in Giurgiu.