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Unirea Dej vs CSM Reşiţa — Liga II 2018

Unirea Dej
Unirea Dej
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
11/11/2023Liga IILiga II · Round 13Stadionul Municipal Dej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Unirea Dej40%
×Draw27%
CSM Reşiţa33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Dej
1.32
CSM Reşiţa
1.19

Unirea Dej creates 11% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 64 away

creates per match

Unirea Dej
1.17
CSM Reşiţa
1.22

allows per match

Unirea Dej
1.17
CSM Reşiţa
1.47

finishing

Unirea Dej+0.00on par
CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Dej ↓

CSM Reşiţa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Unirea Dej or draw
67%
Unirea Dej or CSM Reşiţa
73%
Draw or CSM Reşiţa
60%

Winning margin

Unirea Dej wins by 2+
18%
CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Unirea Dej 1+ goals
73%
Unirea Dej 2+ goals
38%
Unirea Dej 3+ goals
15%
CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals
70%
CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals
33%
CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Unirea Dej (draw refunded)
54%
CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Dej at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 41 matches

CSM Reşiţa away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Dej attack 1.17 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.22 + Unirea Dej defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Unirea Dej scores more
40%
level
27%
CSM Reşiţa scores more
33%

Unirea Dej at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Unirea Dej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unirea Dej vs CSM Reşiţa

CSM Reşiţa beat Unirea Dej 3-1 in Liga II on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Dej in Dej.